Showing posts with label Piketty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Piketty. Show all posts

Monday, 2 June 2014

Rich People belong to a different Species.

I recall drunkenly watching the 1992 cult movie, Society, where, it turns out, the Rich really are, as Fitzgerald said, different from the rest of us not because they have more money but because they turn into pullulating, pustulating, disgustingly pink giant amoebae at high toned incestuous orgies- before proceeding to eat us.

Alex Tabarrok has a lucid- therefore obviously ludicrous- post at Marginal Revolution which compares Piketty's pataphyique model with the standard Solow witted shite we were all forced to learn at School.

Tabarrok is commenting on Krusell & Smith who highlight Piketty's definition of Y (Income) as net of Depreciation- i.e. Income is what you can spend such that future Income doesn't fall- so if stuff you need to maintain your standard of living needs repair, then your Income is what's left over after you've done the repairs. Now, some 'Capital' (i.e. man-made stuff needed to sustain your standard of living) is 'Social' or 'Communal' or relates to Education, Training and Psychological Motivation and Boulding 'Psychic Capital'.  If this depreciates by wear and tear or whatever and you don't (either collectively or by yourself) repair it, then- in some sense- though your consumption may have gone up, still you have 'dis-saved'- you have less Wealth.
Similarly, suppose the value of your house has gone up because rents in your area have gone up. You still spend the same and earn the same in dollars. Still, according to the National Income Statistics, you now get an 'imputed rent' from owner occupation. This could be considered an increase in your yearly Savings, which is why your 'Wealth' increases over time and why, hopefully, you will be eventually reconciled to that selfish little shit of a son of yours who, disgusted by your parsimonious refusal to buy him a burger for his birthday, stormed out of the house when you insisted, by way of judicious reparation, on telling him for the umpteenth time the tragic tale of your brutal date-rape at the hands of his mother that time she took you to see Sir Partha Dasgupta lecture on Optimal Depletion and everybody else was so engrossed in the lecture that they failed to come to your aid... and...sorry this stuff is still just too painful. How would you like it if someone stuck their titty in your mouth just when you'd raised your hand to say "I'm sorry Sir Partha, that equation is wrong?'

Anyway, turning to less horrific topics, this is Tabarrok's mistake- ...' Piketty’s model ... defines output and savings in a non-standard way (net of depreciation) but when written in the standard way Piketty’s saving assumption is that I=dK + s(Y-dK). What this means is that people look around and they see a bunch of potholes and before consuming or doing anything else they fill the potholes, that’s dK. (If you have driven around the United States recently you may already be questioning Piketty’s assumption.) After the potholes have been filled people save in addition a constant proportion of the remaining output, s(Y-dk), where s is now the Piketty savings rate.'
I haven't read Piketty- indeed, my Literacy Worker is no longer allowed to read Econ type books out to me coz of my incontinence issues- still, surely, that smelly Malinvaudian snail-eater wouldn't have committed to homogenous agents just to get in with the Anglos? At worst, he might have 'Schutzian ideal types'. However, a more radical possibility is opened up by my own comment, given below, which now proudly besmirches Marginal Revolution's meretricious web-site.


Windwheel June 2, 2014 at 11:08 am
One way of saving Piketty’s conclusion within the above framework would be to permit depreciation to sometimes be negative savings for one class of agents which, by some bizarre convention re. imputed rents, counts as positive savings for another class of agents. Then what you actually have is two different populations with something like a speciation event occurring- i.e. there is now no  driver for ‘canalisation’.
 Perhaps it’s the visceral feeling that the Rich really are now a different Species- like in the classic 1992 film ‘Society’- which explains Piketty’s appeal. 
For my part, I thought Growth theory had died an unlamented death in the Sixties. To be clear, heterogenous Accounting Identities can always be made to line up if you are Paranoid enough.

P.S- You will be pleased to hear my subsequent comments have been barred.


Wednesday, 28 May 2014

Prof Debraj Ray, Capitalism and the inevitability of increased Inequality.

Apropos of Piketty's book on Inequality, this is Prof. Debraj Ray's- Fundamental Law of Capitalism. Uneven growth or not, there is invariably a long run tendency for technical progress to displace labor

There is a simple argument why this law must hold. It is this: capital can be indefinitely accumulated, while the growth of labor is fundamentally limited by the growth of population. Therefore there is always a tendency for capital to become progressively cheaper relative to labor, and so all technical progress must be fundamentally redirected away from labor. But there is a subtlety here: that redirection must of necessity be slow. If it is too fast, then the demand for labor must fall dramatically, resulting in labor being too cheap. But if labor is too cheap, the impetus for labor-displacing technical progress vanishes. So, this change must be slow. But it will be implacable. To avoid the ever widening capital-labor inequality as we lurch towards an automated world, all its inhabitants must ultimately own shares of physical capital. Whether this can successfully happen or not is an open question. I am pessimistic, but the deepest of all long-run policy implications lies in pondering this question. 



Can Capital be indefinitely accumulated? Let us take
1) Physical Capital. Urm, either it occupies space or it provides an input to something which takes up space. Space isn't infinite. So Physical Capital can't be infinitely accumulated. It can be periodically junked and sometimes even replaced.
2) Financial Capital. Can it indefinitely accumulate? Perhaps in nominal terms but not in terms of a claim on present day goods and services. However, only a small subset of what is in circulation comes under this rubric for all sorts of reasons- Legal, Customary, Government Policy etc. Furthermore, Financial Assets are less like pots of gold and more like a software program. They are the product of engineering and can go obsolete or get buggy or just do a Madoff. Assuming the Stationary Bandit of the State is on the prowl, what we can say about Financial Assets (and the sort of Inequality Piketty highlights) is that, insofar as they keep their value, under Red Queen type pressure (i.e. exhibit co-evolved complexity) they show typical Predator Prey cyclicity. Sure, from a peak, looking back, this may not appear because we no longer recognize genotypal variants which went extinct as belonging to the same species. 
3) Human Capital. Are you shitting me? Rahul Gandhi has an MPhil from Cambridge. Smriti Irani is a Tenth standard drop-out. Whom would you rather see in charge of the HRD Ministry? Nuff said.

What about the 'growth of labor'? It certainly isn't limited by the growth of population. First World War- women started to work- the labour supply increased. In a sense, Technological advances, embodied in fresh Capital goods, determine the potential increment in the Labour supply at any given time. A guy who would have had to retire at 70 may be able to earn a wage at 90 thanks to new technology. A kid of 8 might create an app and sell it for more than a Computer Studies graduate circa 1980.

I can't make sense of the rest of the Professor's remark. He's a real smart guy and knows from multiple equilibria and complementarity and re-switching and so on. His story about indefinitely accumulating Capital ignores rats- Madoff type rats (Principal Agent hazard) and Red Queen type Stationary Bandit, Bureaucratic rats, not to mention good old fashioned Depreciation.
Of course, he may be right. Maybe them smartypants on Wall Street really do know what the future fitness landscape will look like AND what's more incentive compatibility obtains such that no Principal-Agent hazard exists and what's more all the Politicians have been bought off a la Arundhati Roy or Arvind Kejriwal.

If so, History really has ended. However, this still doesn't tell us anything about Inequality. Why? Well, if History has ended then there is no driver for 'canalisation'- human beings will separate out into different species. 
I personally hope to be a pedigree breed of pussy-cat prized by bosomy women who will cook me plenty of treats and let me sharpen my claws on Amartya Sen.
OMG, if only Rahul had taken the same course, he'd now be PM! Seriously, scratching Amartya Sen's face and saying miaow and then jumping into Smriti Irani's cleavage is the only way to defeat Hindutva.